January 5, 2023
thursday morning report
Five days into the new year, every afternoon in Baltimore hits the 60s. Expect this today as well. However, it will be cooler this weekend and conditions will return to something close to normal.
This morning starts off a little damp and calm with areas of fog. It looks like it’s going to be cooler from the afternoon today! But before I go into detail about the weather, I want to talk about the massive storm that hit the West Coast.
surface weather
Locally there is fog as the front moves in, but there will be showers this afternoon as cooler air moves in. This includes snow in the Maryland Mountains. See simulation below.
That “bomb cyclone” that hit Northern California is real! We had gusts of over 85 mph overnight! Yes, we’re getting 2 inches or more of rain around Los Angeles, and up to 10 inches or more near and north of San Francisco. Snow forecast for the next week is 4-8 feet in the higher Sierra Nevada mountains. Learn more about this extreme weather below.
bomb cyclone
Several events have occurred over the past month, but this one off the Pacific Ocean indicates that the atmosphere is still charging and a vigorous winter is on the way…
What’s really impressive about this is that the amount of humidity resembles an El Niño pattern rather than a La Niña storm.
NOAA Storm Statement
(you may need to pinch the text to expand)
National Weather Service: San Francisco Bay Area
I’m showing you this because I used the word “Marvel” at Lake Effect Snow in Buffalo last week. Some found it insensitive given the high death toll.
The term is used from a meteorological point of view, and the NWS did so for this storm, acknowledging it to be a life-threatening event.
🛰 Marvel at the satellite imagery this morning. Who asks, “Where’s the storm?” it’s still coming. The rain this morning is not the main event so to speak. More rain is expected later today. The blue dots are lightning flashes. #Caucus pic.twitter.com/Q3E4xYur5m
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 4, 2023
Gusts up to 85 mph
This was reported last night…
An impressive wind that appears in Marin. Gust now up to 85 mph (4:10-4:30)! #Caucus pic.twitter.com/D2VSUN768s
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 5, 2023
local weather
temperature in the morning
I put a broader perspective this morning, remaining mild in my mid-50s, but stressing that my 30s are headed in western Pennsylvania and Ohio. .
3 p.m. temperature
Temperatures are warm between 1pm and 3pm, then cooler as winds move westward.
Radar Simulation – NAM 3 Km Model
Thursday 12:00 pm to Friday 8:00 am
Showers will spread across Delmarva this afternoon, with a second band west and north of Baltimore tonight.
Friday morning: A final push of energy could arrive around dawn on Friday with this line of rain.
Notice the blue color. This is snow in western Maryland and West Virginia and can add a few inches of fresh snow. It will be a good weekend for the ski resorts.
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climate data
Today January 5th
Usual lows in Baltimore: 26 degrees Fahrenheit
1 degree Fahrenheit recorded in 1877
Snow: 2.8” 2003
Typical maximum temperature in Baltimore: 44ºF
Recorded 69ºF in 1997
Friday
Morning
Still above average, but tends to get colder during the day and over the weekend.
afternoon
These measurements are close to “normal.”
for this weekend
Focused on Sunday afternoons and evenings. Soil temperatures are too high for this to have a local effect, regardless of previous GFS snow model or low snow European model solutions. However, mountain travel can be affected.
Storm Animation: ECMWF Model
Sunday 7am to Monday 7am
GFS is so ubiquitous that I have lost faith in it. Here you can see that the European model shows Sunday’s event with high-altitude snow.
snapshot sunday night
I’ve been told the roads are too hot to stick, except at higher elevations. But this event is an exercise in proving that the model’s guidance continues to be inadequate.
my thoughts:
We are losing faith in the guidance of computer models. There also seems to be a setback in the mid-range event (3rd-5th). For more than a week, global patterns have suggested that something, if not a major impact (too hot to take hold), will happen this weekend. But there is still no lock on how it will unfold.
Hence, there is good reason to see pattern changes based on global circulation and historical analogues going forward.
The atmosphere remains active, and mild winter patterns can still bring snow. So don’t despair that this long-range forecast only shows near seasonal temperatures. It’s not yet time for a pattern change.
7 days forecast
I stressed Friday: I put 50ºF on the BWI, but it stays at 40 degrees most of the time inland from the city and bay.
Next week will be closer to normal. It’s cooler, but not arctic cold. The beginning of the month will be calm, as described in some previous reports. This is the first step back to reality, waiting for the signal sent to the Winter Cavalry to last until the middle of the month.
What is Faith in the Flakes?
Started with my son in 2009
Baltimore Snow and Flake Faith Begins on December 5th FITF
STEM assembly/school field trips are back
Click to view details and ‘book’ your visit to the school
My Winter Outlook: Not Your Typical La Niña!
Many factors are seen to support cooler effects in multiple systems. early and late winter. check it out.
Winter 2023 outlook, snow effects from unusual La Niñas and polar vortex disturbances
See also the Winter Perspective series.
Atmospheric memory suggests prospects for active winter storm patterns
NOAA’s 2023 winter forecast looks very different from the farmer’s yearbook
Farmer’s Almanac Comparison
Outlook for Winter 2023
triple dip la nina winter
2023 Winter Outlook La Niña Triple Dip Prediction
Connection to winter?
If you want a snowy winter, you might want to look for it in the rest of the tropical season.
August record of unnamed tropical storms: detailed investigation following snow
caterpillar caterpillar
Winter weather forecast from the Wooly Bear Caterpillar
persimmon seeds
Winter Weather Forecast: The Tradition of Kaki no Tane and Snow
Click to see top 20 and more
Top 20 Winter Weather Folklore and More Perspective Signals from Nature for Cold and Snow
Normals and Records: The Climate History of Maryland and Baltimore
