We believe that CISOs are prioritizing zero trust because it has the best return on investment and enables business transformation projects to move forward. Once a zero-trust model is established and embedded into the operating model, organizations can go to market without the typical long delays to validate the security architecture.
Boards of directors in our view are beginning to understand zero trust and it is being redefined as a move away from hardware security toward software-defined security with authentication as its base. Hybrid work has been a key drive and is here to stay as zero trust aligns with a hybrid work environment.
As well, tying back to our previous prediction, we see companies such as Palo Alto and Zscaler making acquisitions to improve their software-defined authentication capabilities.
Watch the prediction on zero trust.
No. 5: Generative AI hits where metaverse missed
According to John Furrier, ChatGPT is a Netscape moment — meaning the first time we all saw the Navigator web browser, we realized a new era was upon us. From an enterprise perspective, according to Erik, natural language processing will take out data prep tools and broadly infiltrate enterprise technology.
The popularity of OpenAI LLC’s ChatGPT has been astounding and the following data from ETR underscore the mindshare it’s grabbing. ETR, for the first time, added OpenAI to its emerging technology vendor survey. The survey has been in the field for only a short time but already received 600 responses. OpenAI has shot to the lead, surpassing even Databricks with a 52% positive sentiment score.
Investors are excited about creating something competitive to ChatGPT and, according to AI expert Howie Xu, around $100 million investment will allow companies to create something similar.
AI is recession-proof — Scott Stephenson, Deepgram
ChatGPT is deep fakes for words… super useful for people who can’t write and increases productivity for those who can…. — David Moschella, author
Finally, Scott Stephenson of Deepgram Inc. sent us a prediction saying “AI is recession proof.” Erik commented that he likes that quote better than the comments from Yann LeCun, Meta’s AI czar who recently slammed ChatGPT. Erik stated that LeCun’s statements come across as sour grapes for a company that has spent an “insane amount of money” on the metaverse, which has been a dud, while Microsoft Corp.’s investments in OpenAI are, in his opinion, much more sound.
Watch the discussion on generative AI, ChatGPT, OpenAI and the future impact of NLP.
No. 6: The cloud expands to supercloud as edge computing accelerates; Cloudflare benefits in 2023
Since we began a community effort to define supercloud, the concept of a common experience across clouds, on-premises and to the edge has gained momentum. Technologists and customers alike see this trend and Cloudflare Inc. in particular is leaning into the concept and even using the name.
Below are some comments from the community and ETR’s Insight roundtables that prompted our next prediction.
In 2023, highly distributed IT environments will become more the norm as organizations increasingly deploy hybrid cloud, multicloud and edge settings. – Atif Kahn, CTO, Alkira Inc.
If my sources from edge computing are coming from the cloud, that means I have my workloads running in the cloud. There is no one better than Cloudflare. – senior director of IT architecture in financial services
Cloudflare’s market share continues to climb – to near 20% Pervasion in ETR’s most recent survey – and they are a leader in WAF, DDOS protection and bot detection… in addition their core edge networking functionality. – ETR survey analysis
We predict 2023 will see the expansion of cloud to the edge and supercloud (i.e. consistency across clouds continuing to evolve). Cloudflare in our view will be a major beneficiary of this trend. According to Erik, Cloudflare has overtaken Google LLC in terms of momentum in the market and is expected to be a big winner in 2023 as organizations increasingly deploy hybrid cloud, multicloud and edge settings.
Cloudflare is considered the best fit for the definition of supercloud as it brings all aspects together and is cloud-agnostic. It is already highly pervasive in networking and security and is considered the No. 1 leader in SaaS, web access firewall or WAF, distributed denial-of-service or DDoS, and bot protection.
It’s also taking share from competitors such as Akamai Technologies Inc. and is the only game in town right now. One possible area of weakness, according to one practitioner, is that Akamai has a stronger on-premises story. We like Cloudflare’s positioning of expanding the cloud to supercloud versus focusing on-premises.
Watch the discussion on cloud, supercloud and Cloudflare.
No. 7: Blockchain’s struggles to find a home in the enterprise continue, but devs will adopt it in 2023. Solidity and other open-source blockchain tools win.
Watch the full discussion on blockchain’s struggles in the enterprise and where it has a chance to get a foothold.
No. 8: AWS, Databricks, Google, Snowflake lead the data charge; Microsoft keeps it simple; dbt Labs disrupts legacy data prep tools
In the data platform market for analytics, machine learning, and databases, Amazon Web Services Inc., Databricks, Google and Snowflake are leading the charge, with Microsoft making is easy to do business with its data tooling. Snowflake and Databricks are currently on a collision course, as they both aim to become the single source of truth in analytics.
We predict there will be a big focus on, and greater adoption, of open formats and languages that are popular in the data science community. For example, Databricks emphasis on Delta Lake and Delta sharing aim the company at Snowflake’s traditional domain. Snowflake’s embrace of Iceberg and Python allow it to encroach on Databrick’s core served markets. In 2023, these trends will accelerate as both companies attempt to expand their respective total available markets.
CUBE contributor George Gilbert predicted dbt Labs LLC will be a new disruptor in the data business, as it’s essentially turning key performance indicators into application programming interfaces inside the data warehouse and simplifying the data pipeline. According to Erik additionally, dbt Labs is currently the No. 1 leader in the data integration market, with a 33% overall net sentiment to lead data analytics integration.
Google will remain focused on BigQuery adoption, but customers have complained that they would like to use Snowflake with Google’s AI tools yet are being forced to use BigQuery.
AWS will continue to stitch together its bespoke data stores, taking the “right tool for the right job” approach and filling the gaps.
Microsoft is simply making it cheap and easy to use their products, despite some complaints from the community about Cosmos.
Erik’s concern is that Snowflake and Databricks are fighting each other, allowing AWS and Microsoft to catch up to them. He believes that both companies need to stop focusing on each other and think about the overall strategy. He also points out that AWS and Azure are collecting their toll, as both Databricks and Snowflake run on top of them. He predicts that Snowflake and Databricks may make some sort of acquisition in the future.
Watch the full discussion on our predictions around the battle for data platforms.
No. 9: Automation makes a resurgence – UiPath and Microsoft’s Power Automate separate from the pack
We predict automation makes a resurgence in 2023, with ETR data showing an increase in spending momentum. UiPath Inc. and Microsoft Power Automate will lead, with UiPath separating itself from Automation Anywhere Inc. However, Microsoft Power Automate has a significant presence with its “good enough” approach.
The focus for robotic process automation and automation generally is shifting from back-office to front-office workloads, with software testing emerging as a mainstream use case. Machine learning and AI are becoming more embedded in end-to-end automations. Low-code is also becoming more prevalent, serving lines of business. This trend is expected to continue as organizations strive to automate as much as possible, particularly in light of recent layoffs in the tech industry. However, there is a challenge for companies like UiPath and Automation Anywhere to compete with Microsoft’s low cost and ease of use. To compete, these companies will need to have a 10 times better product that offers more powerful end-to-end use cases.
Surprisingly, a recent Cowen survey in the U.S. and Europe captured the following results regarding automation:
- Two-thirds of respondents are currently involved with or plan to assess RPA in 2023;
- 72% that are implemented or in proof-of-concept anticipate RPA spending growth. UiPath was the most cited vendor (68%) followed by Microsoft (41%).
At a starting point of $15 per user per month for Power Automate, it’s unlikely that Microsoft has fewer RPA deployments. We note the ETR data across 1,500-plus respondents shows almost the exact reverse in terms of account presence (60%/40% Microsoft over UiPath). But the Cowen data caught our attention. Nonetheless, firms like UiPath, Automation Anywhere and the others listed above have significantly broader enterprise-wide automation agendas and can offer greater benefits; albeit at higher software costs.
Watch the full discussion on our predictions around the automation.
No. 10: The number of enterprise tech physical events doubles. Big events get smaller. Digital becomes a first-class citizen
John Furrier provided much of the input for this next one. We predict that the number of physical events is going to increase dramatically – by two times at least in 2023. That might surprise people, but most of the giant events are going to get smaller. There are some exceptions, including AWS re:Invent, Snowflake Summit, Mobile World Congress and perhaps RSA. And there will be some others that grow, but generally we see a trend toward more smaller events and more regional and intimate road shows.
These micro-events are going to be stitched together and digital becomes a first-class citizen.
We predict that increasingly, brands will prioritize earned media and will begin to build their own news networks, going direct to their customers.
Watch the prediction on enterprise tech events doubling in 2023.
Bonus predictions with honorable mentions
Erik threw in the following bonus predictions.
Data prep tools headed for extinction
“I definitely think the data prep tools are facing extinction,” he says. He believes this will negatively impact companies such as Talend Inc., Informatica Inc. and other names like these. The problem he sees is that the business intelligence tools increasingly include data prep capabilities. An example of that is Tableau Prep Builder.
I definitely think the data prep tools are facing extinction – Erik Bradley, ETR
In addition, he cites advanced natural language processing being embedded in as well. Examples he cited is ThoughtSpot Inc., Tableau with Ask Data, and Qlik has Insight Bot. He believes all these minimize data prep complexities and will continue to improve over time. According to Erik, a regular business user can just self-query, using either the search bar, or even just speaking into what it needs, and these tools are doing more of the data prep.
Knowledge graphs break through in 2023
According to Erik, Neo4j is growing its pervasion in the ETR survey and is grabbing Mindshare, with more IT buyers citing it. AWS Neptune is another one that he seems to be getting its act together, and spending momentum is growing there. TigerGraph is also growing in the survey sample.
Knowledge graphs are ready to break through.
Real-time streaming analytics shine in 2023
The prediction here is real time streaming analytics moves from the very rich big enterprises to mainstream and more people will actually move toward real-time streaming this year. Because the data prep tools and the data pipelines have gotten easier to use, the return on investment on real-time streaming is more obvious.
Watch Erik Bradley’s bonus predictions for 2023.
Please by all means let us know how your predictions compare with these. As always we appreciate the collaboration and input from the community.
Keep in touch
Thanks to Erik Bradley, John Furrier and all the firms that sent in predictions over the past several months. There are too many to mention and though we only used a few, we do read them all.
Special thanks to Alex Myerson and Ken Shifman on production, podcasts and media workflows for Breaking Analysis. Special thanks to Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, who help us keep our community informed and get the word out, and to Rob Hof, our editor in chief at SiliconANGLE.
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